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Jul 30, 201512:40 PMOpen Mic

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Jobless claims reach four-decade low

Last week was quiet in terms of economic data and political risks.

Greece is heading into debt negotiations this week, which we hope will wrap up before the next debt payment is due to the European Central Bank (ECB) on August 20. Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is likely to shed further light on the prospects for a September liftoff. Global economic data pointed to softer manufacturing activity in China and Europe, with flash purchasing manager surveys for July slipping.

In the United States, weekly initial jobless claims reached the lowest reading since 1973, and the index of leading economic indicators grew 2% in the second quarter, accelerating from just 0.2% growth in the first quarter. Data appear consistent with solid U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter. The preliminary indication for second quarter U.S. GDP growth will be released on July 30. Consensus expectations are for the U.S. economy to accelerate to 2.7% in the second quarter from a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter.

We believe the U.S. economy remains on solid footing and should grow at an average pace of 2.5% over the course of this year. Outside the United States, developed economies will likely see improving, but slow, economic growth, while emerging market economies are likely to see slower growth.

For more information, please go to: https://reserve.usbank.com/insights/market-economic-update.

Robert L. Haworth, CFA, is a senior investment strategist and Darrell Behnke is the Madison market leader for the Private Client Reserve of U.S. Bank.

This information represents the opinion of U.S. Bank and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or guarantee of future results. It is not intended to provide specific advice or to be construed as an offering of securities or recommendation to invest. Not for use as a primary basis of investment decisions. Not to be construed to meet the needs of any particular investor. Not a representation or solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any security. Investors should consult with their investment professional for advice concerning their particular situation. The factual information provided has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The organizations mentioned in this publication are not affiliates or associated with U.S. Bank in any way.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data, while deemed obtained from reliable sources, are not guaranteed for accuracy. Indexes shown are unmanaged and are not available for investment.

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Jul 30, 2015 05:10 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

With 90,000,000 adults out of the workforce (and therefore not eligible for unemployment benefits), using the decline in claims for unemployment benefits as a basis for a measure of prosperity is meaningless. The question is not how many people are seeking unemployment benefits, the question is how many jobs are there in the economy. Actual net job growth has been feeble since 2008 and counting. Any many of the jobs "created" are inferior in pay and benefits to those they had in 2008, and in 1998, and in 1988, and in 1978. Future historians will long wonder at the spectacle of an entrenched political class enthusiastically exporting its country's jobs, technical know-how, and intellectual property for more than 50 years to other, frequently hostile, nations. Genius!!

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