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Apr 4, 201604:07 PMFinancial Perspectives

with Michael Dubis, CFP

The world didn’t end in the first quarter of 2016

(page 1 of 2)

The prognosticators were once again wrong: the world didn’t end in the first quarter of 2016.

In February, I wrote about the bear market we were in and the fact there was little an investor could do about it that would be short-term exploitable.

That doesn’t stop people from trying to do something about it and it doesn’t stop “experts” from making bold and extreme claims. In fact, many supposed experts were prognosticating that the financial world was coming to an end!

For example, we heard the following:

“Sell everything.”

“This crash is going to be bigger than the 2008 economic crisis with markets falling 75%.”

“A collapse is already at our doorstep!”

Taking the “extremists” advice would have been pretty expensive.

FYI, a 20% bear market that has now recovered is not a crisis; it’s a market cycle. It’s normal. It happens a lot. You should expect it.

Also, if you are reading on the Internet or in your paper, or even listening to the radio or TV, about an impending “crisis,” I assure you that information has been baked into the market cake for some time. Crises by their very nature don’t show up after the markets are fully aware of the possibility. No offense to readers but you do not have access to the necessary information to be in front of a crisis. (Neither do I, by the way!)

There’s always going to be a bear market coming, so if these prognosticators keep saying the same thing over and over again eventually they will be right. What’s worse — they’ll claim they told you so! They do this with the hope no one notices how many times they’ve been wrong.

Being early is the same as being wrong. Or another old saying I like: A broken clock is still right twice a day — but the other 86,398 seconds of the day it is not!


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About This Blog

It is an understatement to say the world has experienced a radical shift in capital markets. There are more layers of information and opinions on the direction of the world than we've seen in decades. The internet and the media do not always make it easier, but Michael Dubis' contribution through IB blogs will help you sift through the noise and give you some perspective. You can find his company online.

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