Apr 4, 201612:36 PMBlaska's Bring It!
with David Blaska
Wisconsin votes Tuesday for … Paul Ryan!
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How will Wisconsin vote Tuesday?
Wouldn’t Megyn and Shep, Wolf Blitzer, and Comet like to know!
The Marquette Law School Poll released last week has Cruz up 40% over Trump’s 30%; Kasich gets 21%. But who gets the delegates?
Joe Handrick's analysis
Each of the state’s eight congressional delegates elects three delegates to the national convention in Cleveland. They are bound by the winner of their district. The other 18 are bound by the statewide winner. All delegates — statewide or congressional — can be released only if their pledged candidate releases them or if that candidate falls below 35% of the roll call vote at convention. (Each state is different.) It is more than conceivable that the convention rules committee this year could change the rules to make easier the release of delegates.
The conundrum facing Republicans is that if they vote for Kasich does that elect delegates for Trump? Kasich, in Madison Saturday, said, “A vote for Kasich is a vote for Kasich.” Maybe so, but if Kasich gets 33% of the Second District’s vote and Cruz gets 32%, Trump gets the delegates with his 35%.
Former state legislator Joe Handrick of Minocqua is one of the most perspicacious election observers in the state. He predicts Cruz wins statewide, giving him those 18 delegates, and at least another five of the state’s eight congressional districts for a total of 33 of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates. Trump, he says, could win the other three congressional districts for nine delegates, or be shut out entirely. Kasich, he thinks, could get three delegates out of the 2nd Congressional District (Madison).
Joe works his numbers out on the back of an old state government inter-departmental mail envelope. He doesn’t have the services of Ol’ Sparky, the Eisenhower-era mainframe computer housed in the tool shed here at the Stately Manor. (The mechanism also pops corn and melts the butter for it.) After an oil change and a new fan belt, the white lab coats at the Blaska Policy Werkes jump-started the relic and watched it light up like a Philco console TV dropped into the bathtub.
The envelope, s'il vous plaît
Two shift changes later, Ol’ Sparky blinked twice, emitted a puff of acrid blue smoke, and spat out these results:
• Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton by six percentage points. (FBI agents are sharpening their pencils.)
• Rebecca Bradley by two percentage points over JoAnne Kloppenburg for state Supreme Court. (After Brookfield reports on Thursday.)
• Chris Abele over Chris Larson 56%–44% in Milwaukee County. Larson is just foul. A major architect of the Democrats’ failure in the Legislature.
• Tom Barrett over Ald. Bob Donovan; a surprisingly close 52%–48% for the incumbent mayor over a Trump-like character.
For the GOP presidential nomination, Old Sparky puts it at Cruz 46%, Trump 29%, and Kasich 25%. But how many delegates, you clinking, clanking, clattering collection of caliginous junk?! Sparky whirred a bit more before revealing:
• Trump: 3 delegates (Sean Duffy’s far-northern 7th District)
• Kasich: 3 delegates (Dane County-centered 2nd District)
• Cruz: 36 delegates (six districts X 3 plus 18 statewide)