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Apr 4, 201612:36 PMBlaska's Bring It!

with David Blaska

Wisconsin votes Tuesday for … Paul Ryan!

(page 1 of 2)

How will Wisconsin vote Tuesday?

Wouldn’t Megyn and Shep, Wolf Blitzer, and Comet like to know!

The Marquette Law School Poll released last week has Cruz up 40% over Trump’s 30%; Kasich gets 21%. But who gets the delegates?

Joe Handrick's analysis

Each of the state’s eight congressional delegates elects three delegates to the national convention in Cleveland. They are bound by the winner of their district. The other 18 are bound by the statewide winner. All delegates — statewide or congressional — can be released only if their pledged candidate releases them or if that candidate falls below 35% of the roll call vote at convention. (Each state is different.) It is more than conceivable that the convention rules committee this year could change the rules to make easier the release of delegates.

The conundrum facing Republicans is that if they vote for Kasich does that elect delegates for Trump? Kasich, in Madison Saturday, said, “A vote for Kasich is a vote for Kasich.” Maybe so, but if Kasich gets 33% of the Second District’s vote and Cruz gets 32%, Trump gets the delegates with his 35%.

Former state legislator Joe Handrick of Minocqua is one of the most perspicacious election observers in the state. He predicts Cruz wins statewide, giving him those 18 delegates, and at least another five of the state’s eight congressional districts for a total of 33 of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates. Trump, he says, could win the other three congressional districts for nine delegates, or be shut out entirely. Kasich, he thinks, could get three delegates out of the 2nd Congressional District (Madison).

Joe works his numbers out on the back of an old state government inter-departmental mail envelope. He doesn’t have the services of Ol’ Sparky, the Eisenhower-era mainframe computer housed in the tool shed here at the Stately Manor. (The mechanism also pops corn and melts the butter for it.)  After an oil change and a new fan belt, the white lab coats at the Blaska Policy Werkes jump-started the relic and watched it light up like a Philco console TV dropped into the bathtub.

The envelope, s'il vous plaît

Two shift changes later, Ol’ Sparky blinked twice, emitted a puff of acrid blue smoke, and spat out these results:

•  Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton by six percentage points. (FBI agents are sharpening their pencils.)

•  Rebecca Bradley by two percentage points over JoAnne Kloppenburg for state Supreme Court. (After Brookfield reports on Thursday.)

•  Chris Abele over Chris Larson 56%–44% in Milwaukee County. Larson is just foul. A major architect of the Democrats’ failure in the Legislature.

•  Tom Barrett over Ald. Bob Donovan; a surprisingly close 52%–48% for the incumbent mayor over a Trump-like character.

For the GOP presidential nomination, Old Sparky puts it at Cruz 46%, Trump 29%, and Kasich 25%. But how many delegates, you clinking, clanking, clattering collection of caliginous junk?! Sparky whirred a bit more before revealing:

•  Trump: 3 delegates (Sean Duffy’s far-northern 7th District)

•  Kasich: 3 delegates (Dane County-centered 2nd District)

•  Cruz: 36 delegates (six districts X 3 plus 18 statewide)

(Continued)

Old to new | New to old
Comments, page 1 of 2 1 2 Next »
Apr 4, 2016 12:45 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

Went to the Town Hall with Megyn Kelly - so great to be able to see such things on a 10-minute bike ride.
Great enthusiasm there - if Madison can turn out such a crowd, Cruz may surprise tomorrow with a clean sweep. I'd like to see Trump below 30%, but I know that is probably wishful thinking.
coolkevs

Apr 4, 2016 01:54 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

Who cares, our state does not make a nation , nor will it ever.

thank whom ever for that.

(delusional comes to mind).

the all important Wisconsinites.

coolkev still looking for the 500 people at the cruz rally.

please !

Apr 4, 2016 01:59 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

42 delegates, ha, not even significant.

Apr 4, 2016 02:05 pm
 Posted by  David Blaska

I attended, too. Town Hall airs on Fox 8 p.m. tonight (April 4). Gov. Walker appears in final 15 minutes.

Apr 4, 2016 02:25 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

Check your combination all-in-one mainframe computer hot-buttered popcorn privileges. Some of us are still getting by with nothing more than our trusty old 1976 TI-30.

Cruz 44%, Trump 31%, Kasich 16%.

Betcha a cheeseburger

—Meade

Apr 4, 2016 03:31 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

Trump uber allis, Betcha a pair of Ann's panties

-the Swede

Apr 4, 2016 05:26 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

Trump by a whisker. With any luck Eddie Munster Ryan will get whacked by a Democrat in the next election.

Apr 4, 2016 05:31 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

It seems to me that a vote for Kasich is a vote for Kasich and if that delegate ends up voting for Trump, then that's Cruz's problem. Or yours, if you hate Trump.

Apr 4, 2016 05:39 pm
 Posted by  Anonymous

Where is my Spotted Cow? That was the best line?

Do you really delight in these obviously fake folksy local references? Do you think Kasich came up with that himself? It was whispered in his ear like that guy in Veep. Best thing Trump has going for him is he doesn't play that game. He doesn't know jack about Wisconsin and he's not going to pretend he does. Wausau Windows are probably from Wausau, he said after clarifying that they produced the glass for a massive NYC tower he built.

Apr 5, 2016 09:43 am
 Posted by  Anonymous

"In a few days, we’ll run the punch cards through Old Smoky, our Eisenhower-era mainframe computer" (March 30).

"Ol’ Sparky, the Eisenhower-era mainframe computer" (April 4).

Which is it? Or did you buy a new one at Goodwill?

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About This Blog

Raised on a farm near Sun Prairie, David Blaska is a recovering liberal who spent 18 years in daily newspapers, including 12 at The Capital Times in Madison as a reporter and editor. He served Gov. Tommy Thompson as acting press secretary in 1998 and is a veteran and survivor of 19 years in state government. He served 12 years on the Dane County Board of Supervisors. From December 2007 to November 2011 he wrote the consistently popular "Blaska's Blog" for Isthmus online's "The Daily Page" until, he says, the intolerant liberals ran him off. He blogs from Madison.

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