Edit Module
Bookmark and Share Email this page Email Print this page Print Pin It
Feed Feed

Nov 19, 201501:14 PMOpen Mic

Send us your blog for consideration!

November employment report key for Fed rate lift-off

U.S. economic data remained relatively mixed last week, likely indicating U.S. growth remains modest with no acceleration, but does not appear to be slowing toward recession.

Retail sales were somewhat disappointing for October due to softness in gasoline sales. However, confidence indicators for both small business and consumers remain solid. Some of the softness in retail sales may actually be due to falling prices, as indicated by the October decline in producer prices by 0.4%, rather than declining consumer unit sales.

Economic data on inflation and jobs will be key as we head into the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. October consumer prices are expected to rebound modestly in this week’s report from a decline in September. Also key in the Federal Reserve’s equation will be the November employment report, which should show solid employment gains based on continued low jobless claims data and job openings rebounding from the August decline.

Economic data outside the United States also indicates economic activity remains relatively mixed. European third quarter growth rose 0.3%, maintaining the modest pace of activity while Japan slipped into recession as gross domestic product contracted for the second quarter in a row on softer business spending. Quantitative easing policies by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to expand to support their economies.

October data for China remain mixed. Inflation pressures continued to ease and export activity continued to slide. Retail sales activity remained strong relative to industrial production, indicating rebalancing toward consumer spending from investment-driven growth. Overall, economic activity in China is unlikely to accelerate due to this rebalancing. However, growth is likely to remain much faster than developed markets, such as the United States, Japan, and the eurozone. Urbanization, rising wages and rising consumer spending are likely to keep growth in China at these higher levels.

For more information, please go to: https://reserve.usbank.com/insights/market-economic-update.

Robert L. Haworth, CFA, is a senior investment strategist and Darrell Behnke is the Madison market leader for the Private Client Reserve of U.S. Bank.

This information represents the opinion of U.S. Bank and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or guarantee of future results. It is not intended to provide specific advice or to be construed as an offering of securities or recommendation to invest. Not for use as a primary basis of investment decisions. Not to be construed to meet the needs of any particular investor. Not a representation or solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any security. Investors should consult with their investment professional for advice concerning their particular situation. The factual information provided has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The organizations mentioned in this publication are not affiliates or associated with U.S. Bank in any way.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data, while deemed obtained from reliable sources, are not guaranteed for accuracy. Indexes shown are unmanaged and are not available for investment.

Click here to sign up for the free IB ezine – your twice-weekly resource for local business news, analysis, voices, and the names you need to know. If you are not already a subscriber to In Business magazine, be sure to sign up for our monthly print edition here.

Add your comment:
Bookmark and Share Email this page Email Print this page Print Pin It
Feed Feed
Edit Module

About This Blog

Make your voice heard with IB's "Open Mic." Send your blog entry to Online Editor Jason Busch at jason@ibmadison.com for consideration.

Archives

Feed

Atom Feed Subscribe to the Open Mic Feed »

Recent Posts

Edit Module