IB Madison Blogs / Bring It! / October 2012 / Wisconsin voters suffering from campaign whiplash?

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Nov 1, 201208:50 AMBlaska's Bring It!

with David Blaska

Wisconsin voters suffering from campaign whiplash?

(page 1 of 2)

Obama. Wait a minute, Romney! No, this time I’m almost certainly for one of them.

The Marquette Law School poll out Wednesday has Barack Obama up 51% to 43% over Mitt Romney and Tammy Baldwin up 47% to 43% over Tommy Thompson. In its previous poll, the two candidates were virtually tied, with Obama at 49% and Romney at 48%. 

That is, frankly, astounding movement toward the Democrats in the last week of the campaign. Maybe too astounding? That’s what Charlie Sykes thinks:

Another day, another skewed poll that oversamples Democrats and underweights Republicans. The only thing consistent about Wednesday's MU Law poll is its penchant for wild, unexplained swings in voter sentiment.

In a year in which the numbers have moved only incrementally, MU would have us believe that Wisconsin voters have experienced massive – and largely unexplained – mood swings in the last few weeks.

Recall that in September, MU reported a stunning 18-point swing in the Senate race that transformed a nine-point Thompson lead into a nine-point Baldwin lead in just a month. That swing also turned a three-point Obama lead (August) into a 14-point Obama lead (September).

For a little leavening, The Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll this morning has Obama up only 49% to 46% in Wisconsin, within the margin of error. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson 48% to 47%, closer than the four-point margin Tammy enjoyed two weeks ago. The interesting thing here is that 34% identified themselves as Democrats to only 29% Republican.

Ramussen has Romney up two points nationally, tied in the RealClear Politics average of polls. Of course, what really matters is the battleground states in the Electoral College. Bill Clinton, remember, was never elected with a majority of votes.

Also recall that in October 1980, Gallup had Jimmy Carter up 47% to 39% over Ronald Reagan. Following the 1988 Demo convo, Mike Dukakis held a 17-point led over George H.W. Bush.

The scary thing about the Marquette poll is that it was dead-on with the Walker recall vote this June. I’m not going to question the funding of the poll or professor Charles Franklin’s motivations as Fighting Ed Garvey did throughout that campaign. But if likely voters skews five points more Democrat than Republican as Marquette posits, then Wisconsin is an outlier.

Gallup is suggesting that turnout nationwide will be 36% Republican to 35% Democrat compared with 39% Democrat and 29% Republican in 2008, Karl Rove says. One more thing: if Wisconsin was in the bag, why would both Romney and Obama be hitting the state hard in the final days?

Cue Ed McMahon: How ... liberal ... IS Tammy?

If Marquette is right, Wisconsin will elect one of the most liberal members of Congress to the U.S. Senate just two years after electing one of the most conservative, Ron Johnson.

There is a website that places congress-peoples on the liberal/conservative spectrum. It’s called Voteview.com, and due credit to Lee Bergquist and Patrick Marley of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for finding it.

The site is the work of Keith Poole of the University of Georgia and Howard Rosenthal of New York University. It shows that since 1999, Baldwin's record has been more liberal than that of Nancy Pelosi, as Tommy Thompson has been saying all along. Baldwin ranks as the 19th most liberal member of Congress. Pelosi ranked 43rd, according to Voteview.

Baldwin also has ranked as more liberal than all other members of the state's delegation in the House over the period. In fact, the most liberal of any Wisconsin federal official in the last 40 years. More than Bob Kastenmeier and Russ Feingold – even Gwen Moore!